Why being vaccinated is not enough to protect you against Delta.
And why you shouldn’t be going back to normal life just yet.
I’m a doctor and a Product Manager at Google. I’m concerned at the laissez-faire approach our nations and work places are taking against the Delta variant under the guise that the majority of their population or their staff are vaccinated. The argument is that those that do not get vaccinated have a right to not do so and those that are vaccinated will not be effected by those that do not. Read below to find out why this argument is false. And why you are not safe to go back to life as normal, just yet.
There is an exponential rise of the COVID-19 Delta variant right now around the world. Delta variant’s R0 or infection rate has increased from 2.7 to ~6. This means for this variant the infection numbers compared to this time last year, are like an elephant looking down at an ant. The death rate for this variant is 2x that of the original variant. But many Americans and Europeans, especially those that are vaccinated, seem to not be worried as the rise in infection numbers is not causing a rise in hospitalizations or death rates.
While this is true and positive news, the statistics you see when you do a simple Google search for “Covid numbers” do not tell you the full picture of what’s going on or how the delta variant may impact you. Before the vaccine, 15% of those that got COVID also got Long Covid. If we all stop social distancing and the virus is as contagious as it is (see R0 number) then I expect, a large swath of the population will end up getting the infection, even if it’s asymptomatic. In this case, with the vaccine, 1–4% of vaccinated people who get COVID infection will also get Long Covid. While that’s an improvement, that is not a small number. That means up to 1 in 25 to 1 in 100 people you know may have debilitating long term conditions from getting COVID even after being vaccinated. To put this in perspective, if these stats were the same for the percentage of people who crash when driving or on a plane, no one would be driving a car or flying.
What is Long COVID?
It is a confluence of symptoms that stay long after some people get COVID. It is a diagnosis of exclusion as it cannot be diagnosed directly. It is not correlated with how severe your initial COVID infection was and as stated above, you can get it even after you are vaccinated.
The symptoms include:
- Reduced memory or concentration (brain fog)
- Joint pain
- Heart palpitations, chest pain
- Shortness of breath
- Change to taste or smell
The cause for Long Covid is still not fully understood but it’s likely due to your immune system going into overdrive and attacking its own cells. This happens more often with those people with a strong immune system.
What this means for vaccinated people?
Even if you are vaccinated, until Delta is brought under control, you should wear a mask, avoid all indoor areas, wash hands regularly, and socially distant. The national and local government regulations are not currently mandating this because they are not measuring and reporting Long Covid. However, getting this condition has a very real impact on you and your families health long term. And you should take it very seriously even if the national and local government currently isn’t.
Should I go back to in-person work environment or social gatherings?
Some people either have already or are gearing up to go back to work or socially gather in person soon. If you can, avoid doing this until Delta variant is under control. As stated, the risk of getting Long Covid is not small and the consequences for you and your family are too grave to ignore.
When can I have my life go back to normal?
Due to the R0 of this variant increasing, we’ll now need 90% of the population vaccinated to have herd immunity, compared to 70% for the original. UK and USA are sitting at around 50–60% currently.
The other option is to bring Delta under control through social distance measures including strict lockdowns.
The final option is that the booster vaccine will reduce risk of Long Covid to <1%. We are expecting boosters coming out later this year against the delta variant.
Doing none of the above is not a good option.
Can’t we let natural selection do its work?
A few people have shared this statement (often as a bit of crude joke). This sentiment assumes that vaccinated people are safe and those that chose not to take the vaccine make their own death bed. I hope I’ve proven from the above that you are not safe until everyone is safe. Vaccinated or not, the risk of long covid is not small.
We need all of us!
This disease truly requires all of us to come together and unite. This is a public health measure and the virus won’t stop mutating until we give it fewer hosts to mutate in and the delta variant is too contagious for you to avoid it if you are treating life is back to normal. You are not safe until everyone is safe.
